Author Topic: A Different Perspective of the Coronavirus Pandemic  (Read 152 times)

Doug K

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A Different Perspective of the Coronavirus Pandemic
« on: December 13, 2020, 08:16:41 pm »
If you think that the issue with the Covid 19 pandemic may be over soon, it most likely will not be a quick or easy solution as some say.

The issue the United States of America has with public safety vs public conscience & responsibility runs much deeper than a vaccine

It appears that Covid Virus is the United States has indeed become just a reflection of the overall division we have in America these days. It's being fueled by political division and the fire is being fanned by people who seem to think more about their own needs than those of the country, or the neighbors next door.

It appears that many in this country have lost their perspective of what should be considered "common sense", and are now prescribing to what many will attribute to a "cult-like" following. What most people understand as a public safety issue, some in this country have made a "personal rights" discussion. While some are looking at ways to mitigate the spread of a dangerous killer bug in the herd using masks & separation, others are whining about the bug being a hoax, and again.. how it affects THEIR lives.

These people really don't care about the others in the herd, they only seem to care about the spot that is under their own shadow.

Take a look at the United States Covid Data for 2020. This is readily available online at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I have captured the Worldometer COVID-19 data table and sorted it so that state can be compared side by side by rate of infection per 1 million in population. Bigger states could have more daily cases but the number per million people in that state could be on average with any other state at that moment.



If the case data is sorted high to low, and we use the average number of cases per million people as a gage, the states ABOVE the average line would have more people getting sick per capita than those BELOW the countries' average case line.

Now here's where we add a bit of perspective... and data. I used the recent 2020 Presidential Election map, that also shows STATE data and placed Red and Blue labels against this Covid Data Table...and the results are amazing.

Here's the Presidential Election Map



And when the two data sets are combined, in order to see which STATES are having the worst time with Coronavirus, the results may surprise many.





The STATES that are complaining the most about wearing masks, social distancing, businesses closing and how their "civil liberties" are being taken away, are the states that have the BIGGEST issue with Covid and have more people catching & spreading the virus, making the whole problem even worse. And for the most part, they are in Red States... those believing that Joe Biden still isn't the President to be

Maybe it's time for some people to look in the mirror and recognize who is the problem?

Just saying it's time we start to fix the problem, and it starts in RED states, because Covid 19 has now become a "republican" plague

« Last Edit: December 13, 2020, 08:20:23 pm by Doug K »

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Michael Caswell

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Absolutely!  I guess those that put Republican Lawn Signs up, and and have Trump stickers on their cars have done us all a favor. Now we can easily recognise them for what they are, COVID spreaders, and stay the hell away from them.
Their denial of the truth will be their own demise.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2020, 08:42:04 am by Michael Caswell »

Doug K

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For a viral sickness that many are calling "just a hoax", the Covid-19 virus at the center of the Coronavirus Pandemic has become a quick, potent killer of Americans in it's first year.

Because once again the NUMBERS tell the whole story when it comes to the "health of the herd".




These numbers are based off the CDC, which many know has become very unreliable for valid data under the Trump leadership, but for the sake of argument we will use these numbers as most folks in the US do as well. You can review the webpages below for more detail as you see fit. The ECNA is just showing people the facts, the data, and also spreading the message that Covid is no ordinary "cold or flu" right now.

It's a better killer of Americans than many of our old diseases combined, and certainly killing many more than guns are these days.

CDC Website - https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

Top 12 Causes of US Deaths - https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death#kidney-disease

Worldometer / Covid Tracking - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Once the 2020 amount & rate numbers are released for the Top 10 Leading Causes of Death in America, many will finally see that Covid-19, when it was new, killed at a rate that dwarfed all others but a couple. This Covid 19 Coronavirus kills more people in America than these 5 causes of death combined: Alzheimer's, Diabetes, Flu / Influenza, Kidney Disease and Suicide. Yes Combined!

Covid 19 may well be as deadly for Americans as all Accidental Deaths (including gunshots), COPD and Stroke deaths... COMBINED, before it is done with us.

Take a look at the column of numbers to the far right side of the data table above. It's labeled - Deaths per Day and simply divides the reported death totals for each cause by 365. Note that Covid, if it stayed the way it started in 2020, would end up killing just over 900 people a day. That is a number that America may have to get used to seeing on their daily news unless people here change their habits... and we all know who they are.

Right now Covid-19 is the THIRD biggest killer of Americans in 2020, right behind Heart Disease & Cancer which annually are #1 & 2 respectively.

What else can be said to convince the sad minority of Americans who still insist that Covid isn't real or is some kind of made up political move?

NOTHING!!! 

Especially when many of the people who are spreading this hoax message, do it just because the leader of their "cult" says the same thing.

It's a sad testament to the American Values of Truth & Justice when someone's fractured opinions can be passed off as fact, especially when the real data shows a much different story. What's even worse is when that FRACTURED opinion is from our Country's Leader, who said he would "Make America Great Again". If this is what "great" looks like to Mr. Trump and his followers, Americans should take note of who's flying Trump flags in their own neighborhoods right now and be warned, people living there are not fit to hold the Office of President in this country.

America is Number 1 in the entire World in the number of Covid 19 Cases... that is not great.

And America is also Number 1 in the entire world for Covid 19 Deaths... That is not so great either.

In fact, 50% of the states that make up our country have death rates per 100K population that exceed ALL of the rest of the COUNTRIES in the world who are fighting the same pandemic.

The United States of America has become the center of the entire world's pity, which isn't great either, since we used to be the country that most other's envied.




But Mr. Trump has made America (and many Americans) GREAT at one thing...

Sadly it is Dying from Covid 19!


« Last Edit: January 02, 2021, 11:23:41 am by Doug K »

Michael Caswell

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Refusing to wear a mask?

Imagine this!  During The Blitz blackout in London during world war two, if there had been a group of people saying, " I'll turn my lights on if I want to!" 'Germ'ans would have loved that - as does the Corona Virus Germ.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2021, 11:24:35 am by Doug K »

Doug K

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Once America, and the smarter Americans realize that Covid 19 will eventually just become "something else that can kill you", they will also figure out that if they want to be protected they have choices.


Covid 19 will become just like with those OTHER illnesses and conditions in that Top 10 list, we didn't stop the world for those did we? COPD, or Kidney disease didn't make the news cycle each and every night. If you don't want to die from those illnesses we all know to stop the bad habits that cause most of them, or do it for your spouse to save them.

Listen to the words people, it's a "novel" or new Coronavirus, meaning it's not one of the 4 common ones that have existed along with humans for quite awhile now. And we don't talk much about them on the news very much either...because they cause what's called the "common cold" is all. In the end the Corona Virus Disease of 2019 will either be like the Flu (#8 on that Top 10 List) and you decide to get a vaccine, or it will be like #4 COPD, which can be "curbed" by making better choices in one's life, like quitting cigarettes or wearing a mask in public.


It will be a choice to wear masks and get vaccines... and should be.

Because we live in a Democratic nation where people make the decisions about what is right or wrong, not the Government. Remember it is "By the People, for the People".

And if you chose to do nothing to protect yourself from Corona Virus Disease 2019 then it may kill you, just like any one of those other Top 10 causes of death in America.

And that too is the way it should be. Because we live in a Democratic nation where any of the "herd" is allowed to run headlong to their death over a cliff at any time.

After all, in the end it will always come down to Natural Order and "survival of the fit". That both body & mind.


Learning from the past, is easier said than done. Remember that America does have a long history showing why it's good to error on the side of improving PUBLIC HEALTH, especially through "Mass-Vaccination".

Here's the "short list" of what we know has almost eliminated past sicknesses that have killed or crippled American's, just like Covid-19

Polio

Measles, Mumps & Rubella (MMR)

Influenza (H1N1)

Rabies

Shingles

Here's a whole list of reasons why vaccinations work, probably better than masks do, and are a great help to drive both Infection & Mortality Rates down

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/vaccines-list.html


Sadly the TRUTH of today, Jan 2, 2021 is not great news on the fight against Covid

The United States have only received on 60% of the promised 20 million doses of Vaccine from the Government that was part of Mr. Trumps Warped Failure. And only 10% of those vaccine doses ended up into the arms of American's and a Country that needs a cure until people regain their perspective.

Because in the end it seems there is a miscommunication issue in our Country, and the Federal & State levels are pointing at each other as the problem

And again these are just what the numbers say, and what most Americans agree is the Truth




Now BEFORE you all write in saying I may be rather "harsh" on the US Federal Response to Covid-19

And some people will probably pine away about how hard the problem is to vaccinate the entire USA, I want to remind you all that once again, Engineers have the answers to these problems, or can most likely remind the Government about their own tools. Ask any Manufacturing Engineer, they have understand BIG numbers, like making paper cups, toilet paper or even like distributing Covid vaccines.

The solution for vaccinating millions of people is about 80 years old, and used by our own America's Military ever since. And most people learned about this "tool" from television in the 1970s - 80s. It's called a MASH unit, Mobile Army Surgical Hospital.

Read about it here --> https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2569328/pdf/jnma00186-0014.pdf

Your would think someone in the current Federal Level would have understood they only need to change 1 Letter to make this distribution solution happen, a Letter S to Letter V. And then government workers can manage the entire process from end to end, and insure it runs as smoothly as possible.

Here's a catchy name for that solution.

MAVH - Mobile Army Vaccination Hospital. And in this day and age it can be as small as an RV to get into more remote areas. The local government works with the Fed Level to announce several "vaccination day events" in areas, by zip code. That's the whole idea of being "mobile".  Now it's only an idea, a curious thought, it still needs to be percolated and made to everyone's taste, but it's moving in the direction of "fixing" a problem instead of "talking" about it.

Which seems to be what Washington DC government leaders want to do these days... talk about what "coulda, shoulda, woulda" happened.

Especially a man who wanted to be King but ended up looking like the court jester...a complete fool.

« Last Edit: January 03, 2021, 09:17:47 am by Doug K »

Doug K

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Updated Coronavirus Numbers: How did Monroe County do?
« Reply #5 on: February 11, 2021, 07:56:15 pm »
The quick answer: Our residents bent the curve better than the National Average for Covid 19 fatalities here in Monroe County... it could have been worse.

I've updated the NUMBERS on the Top 10 Causes of Death in the US Table with Covid numbers from February 11, 2021.. Thank you Worldometer.






And here's the information from the Monroe County Covid websites.





https://www.monroecounty.gov/health-COVID-19

https://mappingmonroe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/217749730f174776a3896b3e8950e03b



I did a little math, and we are slightly under the current average rate of fatality...which is way better than being over.

There are a few STATES that did not do as well as Monroe County did, and they have just as many residents spread across wider areas. Monroe County is just a little worse than Washington DC and we are both close in size, our county has a few thousand more residents than the Nation's Capital. Statistically, on average most would say, and very good for an area that has a major city in it, and several large Towns

Looks like until we get the majority of the almost 700K county residents (who didn't get sick from Covid) vaccinated, we should get use to Covid related deaths on a daily basis. If I had to guess, and my guesses almost always involve a calculator, Covid would result in 2 deaths per day, on average.

That's expecting this Coronavirus to stay in it's #3 position and cause 700-800 deaths annually.

In Monroe County the numbers for deaths from Cancer causes more, and so does Heart Disease... which are way out in their 1 & 2 positions.

Don't lose perspective.

Doug K

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It's been about a full year since the Coronavirus Pandemic started. And this new Covid 19 version has been running through the "herd" like wildfire. While still holding at the NUMBER 3 spot of the Top Ten Causes of Death in America, Covid is climbing fast enough to overtake the Number 2 cause, which is currently Cancer.

Of course this is the "different perspective" side of the Pandemic, taken with a measure of something called "normalization" applied. That means that the numbers we will be showing are based on population size and shown per capita. In fact, in this post we will add a MAP of the USA that shows the Covid Mortality Rate for each state, based on their population size.

Why this view?

That's easy, it's mainly because the the major news outlets are still enamored with "Total Covid Cases" and not the important aspect of Covid Mortality Rates.
 
It's not hard to see that anything related to the general HERD, is population based, meaning that places with LARGER populations will most certainly have more Total Covid Cases. And of course, if that population is based near larger cities it will only compound the "case load numbers".

And the real question might be this:

Should America be concerned with "Covid Case Load", where about 25% of the people said to be infected have ZERO SIGNS of the Virus, or should they be concerned with how well their local medical services are able to keep Infected & SYMPTOMATIC people with Covid from DYING?

I know where I stand on that question... do you?

To put things in perspective and NORMALIZE the data means that you can compare a large populated States like California & Texas, against smaller states like New Hampshire & North Dakota.

Here's the NEW look at overall Covid Mortality Rates for the Month on March 2021





Now here's a look that you will NOT see on your evening news, or morning talk shows... because it tells a whole different story about Covid in America. It's a view of how each state did , compared to other, and based on the POPULATION size for each state. Take a look at the map below to see how your own state is fairing against this virus. The numbers in each US State show how many people will lose their life to Covid-19 for every 100,000 people living in that State.

Bear in mind, that the entire STATE of North Dakota has less people than the Monroe County, NY... where the ECNA is located.





And the idea of keeping the COVID 19 pandemic in PERSPECTIVE also says it's equally important to compare your data against other herds in other Countries than your own, which we have done here.

Please note that the population size of many countries in Europe are smaller than ANY of the States in our country. There are only EIGHT countries in Europe, that are larger than Texas, and most COUNTRIES in the European Union have smaller populations than Pennsylvania & Illinois.






Maybe it's time that Americans wake up and ask their local governments and also their local NEWS outlets to stop hyping up Covid-19 Case Count and START to focus on what matters most.. people dying from this virus, and what that death rate "rolling average" is for their area.


That will help answer the question of "When is it safe to go outside?". 

The best answer is when people stop dying every second from this virus, and Deaths per Day in the USA drops to "flu-like" numbers of one every 10 minutes
« Last Edit: March 17, 2021, 11:31:41 am by Doug K »

Doug K

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Sadly, the PRESS in this country talks a good game, about using "facts & science", when it comes to this Covid Pandemic, but rarely do they every apply those words to 'real reporting'. I will show you two pictures that will hopefully explain what the real data shows.


Most of the worldwide press, including the United States of America, is still talking about "cases" in their countries when it's been proven over and over that about 25% of the Covid cases reported are people who have NO VISIBLE SYMPTOMS of the Coronavirus disease. Its like talking about how many people buy tissues when they have a cold... who cares?

But cases are the BIG number and when you want to instill fear, big numbers matter with an influenza like illness causing global sickness and mortality.

What should matter much more with Covid-19. is how many people, in each country, are DYING from this disease, and most importantly to any "Reopening Efforts" would be CURRENT information & data on what's known as a 7-Day Rolling Average for Covid. While all deaths from this disease matter to those who lost loved ones, in the end the deaths from a year ago really don't matter to what decisions we should be making today.

And when you look at death rates, the Covid data has to be normalized to a "per capita" rate, so that comparisons between larger countries, like the USA, and smaller ones like Hungary, Spain or France. Covid Case & Mortality rates are normally reported as an amount per 1 million people, and one of the best sites I have found to look at Covid with a global perspective and looking at the most recent weekly data is called Worldometer, which tracks global population normally.

A perfect fit to combine Covid numbers with Global Population.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/


Right now the press seems to be fixated on India, and saying how bad things are there. They also cite cases in different areas of the US as being "hot".

While that may be true the fact is that the ratios of US Cases and Deaths, when compared to the Top 12 in the World, are really not that high right now. In fact the numbers for Covid-19, for the past 7-Day Average, are not really as bad as the regular Flu & Pneumonia issues we normally face. But you won't hear these smaller Covid numbers being used in your nightly news, and you certainly won't see a shift from reporting cases to death rates any time soon.

Because as they say... "That doesn't sell newspapers"



Current USA Death Rate from Covid 19 is at 15 per 1 Million People.

For perspective,  Flu/Pneumonia result in about 160 per 1 Million US Residents each year.






And if you were so inclined, here's a look at the Covid Case Rate 7-Day Rolling Average, comparing the Top 12 by Covid Cases to the USA and a few near our rate... Very LOW compared to many larger countries in the world.





Now, ask yourself WHY this type of information isn't shown on US Nightly News.

And the best answer would be the simple one... It would mean that our country should be talking about returning back to what we used to call 'normal' life, and not talking about why that can't happen right now.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2021, 12:46:57 pm by Doug K »