Erie Canal Neighbors Association

General Category => ECNA Neighborhood News => Topic started by: Doug K on October 21, 2020, 12:36:04 pm

Title: The Coronavirus Covid 19 Pandemic is No Hoax - Check the Numbers
Post by: Doug K on October 21, 2020, 12:36:04 pm
Against my better judgement I will post about a topic other than the Erie Canal, on the Forum, just to see if we get a conversation going.

You wouldn't expect any less from an Engineer, looking at a pandemic, it will always come down to logic & numbers. Here's how to best show and understand the impact of Covid on the United States, it's just math. And that math shows that we still have quite a long way to go still, before we start winning the Covid battle.

It won't be easy, especially when many folks in this country are saying that the Covid Pandemic is a hoax.

The numbers on Covid 19 speak for themselves, it's no hoax.

Here's a breakdown of the Top 10 causes of deaths in the United States, a term that we now find can only be applied loosely, we are not "united"  anymore as this Covid pandemic has shown. These numbers are from a study done for MD Linx - Public Health section, looking at 2018 mortality data for the country. I have updated the numbers shown for cause of deaths from deaths per 100,000 to per 1,000,000 to compare with other data you will see in this post.

This information came out BEFORE the Covid Pandemic was becoming an issue here in the USA.


Here are the Covid 19 Numbers as reported and collected by Worldometer, a company who's been tracking World Population numbers for years and has now changed and added Coronavirus information to their website. There are slight differences in how the data is displayed as Worldometer does add US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico to the counts, they don't just cut off at 50 stated and the District of Columbia like some other Covid counting website chose to do. In the end the data is supported by sources they verify like John Hopkins & the WHO & CDC.


Look at the two circled numbers, one red, one black... alarming when you compare to other diseases like Cancer & COPD in that top chart.

Folks, these aren't fake numbers made up to scare anyone, it's a measure of how deadly this new virus is compared to others things measured that kill people.

It's the best way to show how potent this virus can kill, and it shows that many people in the United States have become complacent to something that kills every 90 seconds. The rate of death in this country has been as high as every 20 seconds, and yesterday, October 20, 2020, the GLOBAL death rate for Covid 19 exceeded that... more than 4 people died every minute from this pandemic yesterday on this planet.

For those who want to dismiss the pandemic and say masks are not needed, the Death & Transmission rates for Covid say your wrong!

And for those who want to minimize these deaths by simply saying it's all "fake news and behind us now", YOUR ignorance of a problem doesn't make it go away magically.

Covid 19 is no hoax, but a continued denial of "simple math" in the Semi-United States of America, is the real joke... a deadly joke at that.

Think twice before trying to argue with these numbers.. it could cost you more than you know.

Title: America's Response to the Covid Pandemic is Horrible - Check the Numbers
Post by: Doug K on October 24, 2020, 11:31:33 am
Because some of you wanted to know.. here's another look at Covid from the perspective of the entire world. Because in the end it's always good to look at anything with something that has been lost in our Country lately... that is Perspective.


Anyone that says OUR country has done a good job fighting this pandemic is a fool who has lost all perspective, or refuses to acknowledge facts.

Here's the latest Covid Numbers from one of the several Covid Tracking websites out there, it's called World-ometer and keeps a critical perspective needed for a pandemic like Covid, what a given country or states POPULATION is.


In the USA we have had almost 230,000 deaths now from this virus... that amounts to over 691 deaths per million inhabitants of our country

For Saint Lucia and Barbados that death total would be almost 100% their entire country's population, along with over 40 other smaller countries being tracked for Coronavirus.

Perspective tells us that the size of the country, and the amount of people who live in that country will have a roll in understanding Covid data.

So let's look at the Covid numbers by Country, looking from most populated down... once again the numbers for the United States show the true tale. The response of the Leadership in Washington DC, at the FEDERAL level has been poor at best, but borders on pure neglection and dereliction of duty when compared to other countries fighting the EXACT same virus.


Now as an Data Analyst & Engineer I could show quite a few more data views, maybe a few graphs thrown in for good measure. Some would like it, some would say "boring". But NOTHING that I could do will change the simple fact that the United States has performed the WORST of most global countries with over 20 million people. There are SIXTY countries in that list... all with over 20 million inhabitants.

And the United States of America ranks LAST in performance against this pandemic compared to the rest of the world.

Successfully fighting against the Covid Crisis in this country has been hampered by only one thing.. a lack of UNITY.

No united response to the pandemic by each state, no united message or plan by Mr. Trump and his administration. In fact this country can't even agree about mask wearing or whether we measure the impact of a national pandemic using death rates or dollar signs... how sad.

How ironic for a country who used to pride itself on that simple word... unity. We used to feel so strongly that when we started this democracy our country was named itself after the meaning of that word...the United States of America.

No one could have said it better than this person.. watch the video

Title: Covid 19 in Monroe County, When is it safe to go out again?
Post by: Doug K on October 24, 2020, 02:42:56 pm
Great question in that Post Title...but sadly there is no magic answer folks.

Like many times in Life the best answer is "It depends".

First, understand that there's a data driven method to most good answers, while the best answers use as much data as needed to be about 80% confident that the path being chosen would work the best for the majority of people. There is no 100% solution because of that old saying about pleasing everyone, all the time.

And right now these "United States" of America seem to be divided POLITICALLY about a problem that is MEDICAL in nature...

Here's a look at the USA for Covid data on October 23. I've chosen that day because it set a new record on Covid cases in a day. I have also sorted the data by State Population because in a viral based problem the population will determine the final numbers based on a rate per million people that live somewhere.

It is no surprise that states who've tried to ignore or minimize the Virus (similar to the White House) are now seeing their numbers grow as their plan to "do nothing" appears to have backfired


And for perspective let's chose numbers of other viral based diseases that get tracked in this country...the best to use is Influenza data.

I looked around many websites trying to find one that showed Influenza data by state easily, this one is perhaps the best with a nice map that shows the entire USA by Flu deaths rates per 100K in 2018. The year 2018 was an especially bad year for the US with the Flu.. about 60,000 deaths recorded

To adjust for a Covid Comparison in rate per Million people, it's a factor of 10, so simply move the decimal point. That puts the NY State Rate around 184 flu deaths per million. NY State has a population of 19.5 million people.. you do the math.


In our worst year NY did see about 3600 deaths by Influenza, according to this data set. Again, when you talk about disease type deaths it's key to keep perspective and reference to something, like population size. NY is the fourth biggest state, and has one of the larger cities as well.

So with all things considered a rate of 10 deaths per day in the STATE of NY for a viral type disease is a big number... and quite a bit depends on where you may live in that state. Obviously New York City will be very different than Rochester in Monroe County. For many of us living in Upstate NY, the happenings of NYC do not accurately show what's happening in less crowded counties, cities & townships.

So lets look at JUST Monroe County so we can see what the "old normal" used to look like with just Influenza & Pneumonia data.

Here's the past three years of Influenza & Pneumonia figures for our own County. It shows cursory information on flu contraction & deaths and is a good gauge to use for understanding similar types ailments that kill of the herd here.


So on average Monroe County sees about 6000 cases per year of Influenza/Pneumonia and about 18 deaths per season, we have about a 6-7 months long season for Flu here. Now back to Worldometer for the COVID-19 numbers on Monroe County, and those numbers don't look good overall:

In Monroe County we have just under 7000 total Covid cases now, and just over 300 deaths. And that is for the first 10 months of this new virus so the numbers show that Covid-19 is way more efficient at what it does.. kill vulnerable humans. That is a fact, not an opinion, and the numbers support the statement.


It's all just math at the end of the day. If you look at the Monroe County Flu numbers, we see 16-20 deaths annually, divided by months makes sense when looking at Covid. From what we see, the Flu normally accounts for about 1 or 2 deaths per month... three would be a high number.

And Monroe County also has around 6000 flu cases per season which would mean less than 17 per day putting that rate across 365 days, as Covid doesn't have a season. So give it some room for an annual amount to use for Covid Comparisons, and you get around 20 cases per day for normal influenza & pneumonia cases

So, back to that question... When is it safe to go out outside again?

Maybe when Monroe County sees less than 2 or 3 deaths per month would be a good start... more than that and it's Covid adding to the totals.

Or maybe this is better: When Monroe County sees less than 20 new cases of Covid per day. Because that's what the Flu looked like around here before we were overly consumed by those "USA Daily Covid Case Numbers"

And just maybe the citizens of this country should unite and ask Mainstream Media to start reporting RATES of infection & death, not just the biggest numbers they can find to sensationalize the pandemic even more. Maybe they have forgotten that is also increasing the fear for many older folks and that "fear" may not warranted.

Right now it actually looks good for Monroe County... we are trending below past those NORMAL influenza & pneumonia levels & rates with Covid 19. But like with any virus, especially this Coronavirus strain, it only takes a small gathering of people who don't want to be "bothered" by mask wearing or keeping a distance to turn those numbers into what we know as a "Covid cluster event".


But who can say what "normal" is for Covid in our country, it's anyone's guess.

And that is SADLY because Covid-19 isn't just about a medical problem plaguing this country now, it has become a political & social hot button for many, who don't seem to care about the toll this pandemic is taking on human lives. There are many in this country, mostly Republicans it seems, who want to count the cost of Covid in numbers that start with  Dollar Signs.. $$$.

We all have the same rights in this United States of America or should have. But some folks think that a US citizens right "not to die from the Covid pandemic" should also be weighed the same as others' right to frequent their favorite gym or restaurant, or maybe take in a movie.

Or even to wear a MASK to protect others & themselves, pretty sad when that selfishness is resulting in sorrow and death for others.

Right now the BEST way for anyone to FIGHT against the Covid Pandemic is simple...

Do it with your VOTE, and elect Joe Biden... a President who won't simply ignore the problem and "hope" it goes away.

Title: Re: The Coronavirus Covid 19 Pandemic is No Hoax - Check the Numbers
Post by: Michael Caswell on October 24, 2020, 05:57:41 pm
It's very simple!   If you want to avoid getting COVID, then take these simple steps.

If you see a TRUMP SIGN on someone's lawn, stay away.
If you see someone with a TRUMP sticker on their car, stay away.
If you see someone without a mask, that person is likely following the GOP/Trump philosophy of not wearing masks, stay away.

Republicans are spreading this pox with their lack of social distancing, lack of mask use, and generally following procedures that are super-spreader events.

See what I mean
Title: Re: The Coronavirus Covid 19 Pandemic is No Hoax - Check the Numbers
Post by: Michael Caswell on October 25, 2020, 09:32:57 am
Health Agency Scraps Coronavirus Ad Campaign, Leaving Santa Claus in the Cold